Bank of America downgrades China’s economy growth forecast

Bank of America (BofA) cut its China growth forecast on September 23 in response to intensifying troubles at property giant Evergrande, a fresh COVID outbreak and a widespread regulatory squeeze, Report informs referring to Reuters.

While BofA trimmed its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for China for this year to 8% from 8.3%, it reserved its biggest cut for 2022 to 5.3% from 6.2%. It also trimmed its 2023 outlook to 5.8% from 6%.

BofA’s cuts come as economic headwinds have been growing for China’s $14.5 trillion economy and reflect growing concern that Evergrande’s troubles could have a wide impact.

Evergrande has total liabilities of $305 billion with two bond payments due this week, which it is unlikely to fulfill. Its total liability burden stands at less than 2% of GDP, signaling Beijing is well placed to prevent a wider economic shock.

BofA said its base-case scenario of the ongoing problems at Evergrande is “there would be little spillover” effect on the property sector as a whole and financial markets if the government facilitates an orderly debt restructuring.