IEA raises estimate of global oil demand growth in 2024

Global oil demand in 2024 compared to last year will increase by 974,000 barrels per day (bpd), reads the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Report informs via Interfax.

A month earlier, it predicted this figure at 962,000 bpd. Thus, analysts increased their estimate of demand growth by 12,000 bpd.

The agency lowered its expectations for demand in 2023-2025. According to analysts, last year it amounted to 102.09 million bpd (June estimate - 102.24), in 2024 it is expected to reach 103.06 million bpd (previous estimate - 103.2 million bpd), and in 2025 - 104.04 million bpd (estimated in June - 104.23 million bpd).

Thus, IEA analysts lowered their expectations for growth in global oil demand in 2025 by 52,000 bpd: from 1.03 million bpd to 979,000 bpd.

One of the reasons for the revision of estimates by the IEA is the weaker growth rate of oil demand in the second quarter. According to analysts, it amounted to 710,000 bpd - this is the lowest figure since the fourth quarter of 2022. Experts are convinced that this fact is a consequence of the normalization of growth rates after the pandemic and a return to the dynamics of the 2010s.

Oil consumption in China, which has long been the driver of global demand growth, fell in April and May and in the second quarter of 2024 is estimated to be slightly lower than the year before. This contrasts sharply with growth of 1.5 million bpd in 2023 and 740,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2024.