Uncertainty in Afghanistan - strengthening Taliban - COMMENTARY

In the past two months, the Taliban have seized control of much of Afghanistan. What is the reason for the group's success? What is the source of such respect and trust in the United States, Russia, Iran, and other countries to an organization recognized by the UN as a terrorist? Is the Taliban coming back to power in Afghanistan? What will happen to Afghan citizens or government officials who have acted against NATO, especially the United States? Will the Taliban solve the national problem in Afghanistan? Will this group be able to prevent the cultivation of drugs in the country? Will it save Afghanistan from the quagmire? Will the Taliban create civil solidarity and civil unity?

It should be noted that this group claims to be pursuing a political and ideological line based on Islam. The group's leaders say they do not accept the fatwas and advice of Islamic leaders outside, that they have "their own religious scholars," and that they act on their rulings, decisions, and advice. According to them, these Islamic figures "serve politics" and "are dependent on outside forces." From this point of view, it can be concluded that their Islam is in isolation. It could be a problem for Afghanistan in the future.

By the way, this Islamic movement was established in 1994 in Afghanistan. In Pashto, "Taliban" means "students." It ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 as the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" and from 2004 in the Waziristan region of northern Pakistan as the "Islamic State of Waziristan." The "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" was diplomatically recognized by the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. Had the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks not taken place, the United States would have recognized it. However, after that incident, the Taliban was declared a terrorist organization. This was followed by reports of its links to the terrorist Al Qaeda and ISIS. It is true that from time to time, there was news that the Taliban were against them or that there were armed conflicts between the "students" and them.

Negotiations with the Taliban have not stopped since they left power. The group even has a representative office in Doha, Qatar. After US President Donald Trump came to power, Afghanistan was one of the main topics on the US agenda. Announcing their withdrawal from Syria, Trump said they would not stay in Afghanistan. After being elected president, Joseph Biden began removing troops from Afghanistan. However, the US has said it will keep about 1,000 troops in the country. Biden also promised to help the Afghan president. However, he also conveyed the message that 'the Afghan people must decide their own destiny.'

In recent days, Iran and Russia have also discussed political issues with a group they recognize as terrorists. It is not a secret that the Taliban even gave promises to them. So regional and international forces have agreed to revive the Taliban. In other words, Russia and Iran continued the talks launched by the United States. It also suggests that a larger campaign against the Taliban could begin in the future if it does not keep its promises.

The "students" say they will not pose a threat to neighboring countries. They promise not to allow ISIS to operate in the country. It seems that a new and more humane Taliban is being introduced to the international community. However, reports about the situation in Afghanistan during the years of the group's rule raise doubts. The Taliban has promised not to touch the Afghan government. However, it said it would discuss the state structure of the country. It is expected that the government in Afghanistan will collapse within six months to two years after the withdrawal of the United States. Or it is not ruled out that the civil war will continue in the country in the future.

When the Taliban was in power, they obstructed the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India oil and gas pipeline. The group has not yet commented on the project. The Taliban has been cruel to the country's non-Pashtun population during its years in power. It is about the pressure on Turks or Turkic-speaking people. Uzbeks (4 million people), Khazars (3 million), Turkmens (1 million), and other Turks live compactly in Balkh, Jawzjan, Kunduz, Faryab, Sar-e Pol, Samangan, Ghor, Uruzgan, Bamyan provinces of Afghanistan, including the Caspian provinces, as well as the northern and northwestern regions. Rashid Dostum is considered the leader of Turks. According to reports, the Turks will declare the "Uzbek region" of Afghanistan a "South Turkestan state if the Taliban attacks." It means that the Taliban has no hand in the national issue, which is the main problem in Afghanistan. It suggests that national oppression will continue if they come to power.

A lack of public confidence in the government is likely among the reasons for the Taliban's rapid advance. Presumably, they prefer "students" because there is no other alternative. In other words, the "whoever comes, let them go" approach to the change of government in the country is one of the factors that strengthen the group and bring it back to power.

Those who are stirring Afghanistan are now either stepping aside or leaves the country facing new problems and crises by giving the green light to the coming to power of the Taliban, which they once identified as terrorists. Then the question arises: if you cannot bring peace, prosperity, and tranquility to Afghanistan, why do you divide people?

The United States has remained in Vietnam for almost 20 years and has been in Afghanistan since September 2001. That date will mark the 20th anniversary of the United States' stay in the country.

For many years, Afghanistan has been a country of conflict and unresolved issues. Uncertainty prevails in the country with an area of 652,860 square kilometers and a population of 38.04 million people. These conditions can be the beginning of new political events, the impetus for change in the region, a new game of leading forces. In any case, Afghanistan is again on the verge of a turmoil.