Report experts: US-dollar may fall by 10% in Azerbaijan

Baku. 31 January. REPORT.AZ/ Official exchange rate of US-dollar in Azerbaijan in the first half of this year may decline to the level of 1.80 AZN/USD. 

Analytical Group of Report believes, current level of oil prices prevents US-dollar to exceed 2.00 AZN/USD level: "Current exchange rate allowed to pass balance of payments of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the surplus. However, deficit in the financial account of balance of payments at the end of the day balanced the change in reserve assets and ended it with slight surplus. Balance of payments surplus is expected to increase further in 2017".

Regulation and long-term external and foreign debt of corporate sector in the coming years and in case of oil prices remain above 45 USD / barrel, the dollar exchange rate would not increase sharply.Thus, the sharp rise in the dollar also seriously damaging economic activity. This, in turn, reduces customs and tax revenues, causing an increase in unemployment.As a result, economic growth is weakening", the analysts said.

Analytical Group of Report predicts fluctuation of oil prices of 45-65 USD/barrel range while the dollar exchange rate expected to decline to the level of 1.80 AZN/USD: "The official exchange rate expected to change between 1,80-2,00 AZN/USD range. Another reason for this is the strengthening of local currencies of trading partner countries of Azerbaijan. Thus, the Turkish lira appreciated by 3.5% in recent days, and the process is expected to continue.In Russia, the ruble rose by 30% from the minimum threshold and it is getting stronger and stronger.China's currency gets stronger and currently it is stabilized at 6.87 CNY / USD level.In this case, if manat will not strengthen at this circumstances, then the real effective exchange rate of AZN will sharply decrease, and thus prices of imported goods will rise which can lead to the acceleration of inflation".