Baku. 11 January. REPORT.AZ/ Regardless of the attitude of its friends, enemies, those treating it loyally, Turkey is a state, governed by democratic principle. Free activity of opposition in the country, Open and sharp criticism of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan by his rivals, negative relations to decisions of its government, and other similar such factors prove that freedom of speech, freedom of press and freedom of assembly still continue to exist in Turkey. The political life in this country is full of hot debates and discussions as before.
The statement of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), chaired by lawmaker Devlet Bahçeli, about supporting the candidacy of Erdoğan in 2019 presidential election and speech of Erdoğan in the meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the parliament on January 9 revived the public political life in Turkey.
If the political life revived, the problems in the country are more likely to find their solutions.
Presidential election in Turkey is expected to take place on November 3, 2019.
The preparation for this political campaign has already started which makes the situation tense and increases the vigilance. We will try to predict the result of upcoming presidential election after looking back what had happened in the political life of the country in recent days.
While commenting on what happens in the country Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said: “Those who conducts campaign against referendum entitle themselves to have a say. Those, who damage the unity and equality at AKP are not anymore the sincere commuters of this caravan. Any who steps off this train, will remain on that place. But we will continue our way.”
Referring to Abdullah Gül, the 11th president of Turkey, he stated that those who used to be at AKP do not have right to say a word about party.
Some time ago Abdullah Gül criticized the content of recent state of emergency decrees providing impunity to civilians who fought against the July 15, 2016, coup attempt and terrorist acts that followed it, calling on the government to revise it
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Gul’s protest is baseless. The former president said he will continue expressing his views in situations he finds necessary.
The second important event in Turkish policy was Erdoğan’s thanking chairman of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli.
He deemed natural the discussions with chairman of MHP the problems of country: “I thank Devlet Bahçeli for his statement to support me in 2019 presidential election. As always we stand by our nation.”
On January 8, Chairman of MHP said his party will make decision to support Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in presidential election and will not put forward a candidate for presidency.
The MHP will take part in parliament election either as alliance, if that is not possible, alone. We will make a decision to support Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in presidential election."
Erdoğan and Bahçeli have met on January 10. They discussed the issue of presidential election in the meeting. AKP-MHP cooperation is called Local and National Alliance. The parties said they will cooperate throughout five years from 2019. It turns out that the ruling party says goodbye to Abdullah Gul and welcomes Bahçeli.
Pro national and democratic Great Unity Party, founded by one of the famous representatives of Turkish nationalist late Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu,said they will join election bloc “Local and National Alliance” and support the candidacy of Erdoğan.
Under those circumstances, how the political scene might be during presidential election?
The official results of elections to Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) on November 1, 2016 were as following: The total number of voters participating in election totaled to 85.23%. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) got 49.6% of the votes (317 seats in the parliament), the Republican People's Party (CHP) got 25.22% of votes (134 seats), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) got 11.7% of votes (40 seats), The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) 10,86%, (59 seats along with independent lawmakers).
In 2014 presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gained 21 million votes (51.79%), the candidate of CHP and MHP Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu gained over 15 million votes (38.44%), chairman of HDP Selahattin Demirtaş gained 3 million of the votes (9.7%). The candidacy of Erdogan was supported by the Motherland Party.
Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu’s candidacy was defended by CHP, MHP, Great Unity Party, Democratic Party, Democratic Left Party, True Path Part, Liberal Democratic Party and six more political organizations. At that time Recep Tayyip Erdoğan managed to gain 33.48% of the votes in Diyarbakir region of Turkey. Demirtaşa who was his main rival in this region gained 64.17% of the votes in this region.
Since 2014 the term of the president in Turkey was reduced from seven to five years which means new changes are likely to happen in the next two years’ period.
As a political party, HDP could not hide separatist position expressed by terrorist PKK that wants to split Turkey.
The leader of the party S.Demirtaş has been arrested for supporting such issues. Though the court did not read the verdict about him. The referendum held last year on independence of regional government in the north of Iraq proved the impossibility to realize such ideas. In its turn it was a blow on the image of HPD in Turkey. In recent days the resignation of leading figures from this party gives reason to suggest that HPD will be weakened. Under such conditions, the candidate of those political forces for presidency is less likely to be strong rival. As a result, it gives reason to predict that the people in that region will vote for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Therefore, it can be presumed that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may gain 40-50% of the votes in this region. It is not ruled out that Turkish president’s visits to regions will have positive impact on the votes.
CHP did not name its candidate so far. But the votes the party gained in the last parliament election increase the probability that its nominee won’t be to become a president.
Definitely, decrease of votes for CHP will also affect the candidacy of the chairman IYI party (Good Party) Meral Akşener for presidency. For this reason, under current circumstances, it can be concluded that the votes lost by HDP and CHP, current votes of MHP will be given to AKP leader. It increased the possibility to say that Erdoğan will gain more votes than in previous election. On this issue, the challenge for him wont political parties, but former party fellows or government members, strong fugures like Abdulla Gul, Ahmet Davudoğlu, Bülent Arınc.
So far only one of them, the 11th president of Turkey Abdulla Gül stated that he will express his views on things that happen in political life in the country.
Now it is beginning of 2018. The natural, tragic events and serious changes in the region and world may negatively affect realizations of our predictions.
Development and realization of democracy in Turkey remain the decisive factor. The development and power of state depends on that. Because democracy shows the simplest solutions. Free and fair election is one of its principles.