CSTO Secretary-General's visit – Yerevan's failed provocation – COMMENTARY

Armenia is rebuilding its army after capitulation and the early parliamentary elections. New commanders are appointed Generals and other high-ranking officers, who demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, are being fired.

Armenia commits provocations on the state border with Azerbaijan to attract the attention of the world community. It does not want to leave the territories recognized by everyone during the USSR, claiming that the lands belong to them. The international community, as always, refuses to put Armenia in its place. When Azerbaijani lands were under occupation, those international mediators did not say that Armenia was an occupier. Yerevan was not sanctioned for this crime. Armenia, an occupier, and Azerbaijan, of which lands were occupied, were treated the same.

And now Armenia is not required to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani lands because the conditions for signing a peace agreement between the parties include issues the delimitation and demarcation of borders, the renunciation of Armenia's aggression. Unfortunately, those who act as international mediators, or those who want to, do not demand that Yerevan meet these provisions.

Meanwhile, the United States also had control over Armenia. The US Ambassador to Yerevan, Lynn Tracy visited the West Zangazur region (Syunik Province) bordering Azerbaijan. On August 9, she got acquainted with the activity of the new police patrol service and with representatives of the Armenian government administration. Lynn Tracy said the United States would support Yerevan in organizing patrols in Armenia and carrying out reforms in this area. It turns out that the international mediators are not interested in Armenia's signing the peace agreement. Therefore, the servicemen still play a key role in the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

So, Arshak Karapetyan visited Moscow on July 27 as the First Deputy Defense Minister of Armenia. Two weeks later, on August 10, he left for Moscow again at the invitation of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. Yesterday, the Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Stanislav Zas visited Yerevan. Why does the Armenian Defense Minister go to Moscow every two weeks? What did Zas discuss in Yerevan? It can be assumed that Arshak Karapetyan's visit as the first deputy minister was connected with his appointment as the minister because he was appointed minister after returning from Russia. Therefore, his visit on July 27 can be considered as a plan to get Russia's permission. Nikol Pashinyan formed the government in 2018 without consulting with Russia and saw the results. Therefore, this time he thought that the Kremlin's control over the law enforcement agencies is essential.

By the way, Armenia has not appointed a Minister of Foreign Affairs yet. Because Russia does not want First Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Grigoryan to be appointed as Minister, it wants to see the former speaker of the Armenian parliament Ararat Mirzoyan as the Minister.

During Arshak Karapetyan's visit on August 10, the talks will focus on military cooperation between Russia and Armenia and the issues laying ahead of Yerevan in this area. Moreover, it is also possible that Sergey Shoygu will give instructions to the Armenian Major-General. This may be related to the activities of Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan, the situation of the Armenian army in Khankendi, and the skirmishes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Therefore, this time Shoygu is expected to give specific instructions to Karapetyan.

The Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Stanislav Zas, visited Yerevan on August 9. He met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Acting Foreign Minister Armen Grigoryan, Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan, and other officials. The discussions at the meetings with the Secretary-General were mainly related to the situation on the border with Azerbaijan. Apparently, official Yerevan is trying to deploy CSTO troops on the border. Or it is trying to defend Yerevan's provocative position on the border. However, Armenia's attempt to attract CSTO and third forces to the region has not yet worked. Stanislav Zas reiterated this during his meetings with Armenian officials: "We believe that there are still political opportunities to settle the border conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan." He noted that it is important to act in the Armenian-Azerbaijani-Russian format to resolve the issue. Zas said that the CSTO is paying attention to the situation and carrying out appropriate monitoring at the border with the Armenian government agencies.

There was a serious problem between this military organization and the government of Pashinyan. As a result of this problem, Armenia even lost its chance to the post of Secretary-General. On September 15, a joint meeting of CSTO foreign and defense ministers and secretaries of the Security Council will be held in Dushanbe, and a summit of the CSTO Collective Security Council will be held on September 16. The CSTO chairmanship will be transferred to Armenia at this meeting. Four documents are expected to be signed at the council session. One of them is to amend the agreement on the activities of CSTO peacekeepers and determine the possibility of their involvement. Therefore, it can be assumed that Moscow and Yerevan will deploy military forces under the name of CSTO peacekeepers in the Azerbaijani regions, which are under the control of Russian peacekeepers.

Thus, the United States is assisting Armenia in a new police patrol service. The White House is expected to provide millions of dollars to Yerevan under the name of supporting reforms or the organization of work in this direction. And Russia is discussing a new plan with Yerevan to bring CSTO peacekeepers to the region.