ISW announces purpose of Gerasimov’s appointment as theater commander in Ukraine 

Gerasimov’s appointment as theater commander likely advances two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russian command and control for a decisive military effort in 2023. But Gerasimov is highly unlikely to successfully meet Putin’s unrealistic expectations for his performance, Report informs, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the Institute, Putin has not abandoned his maximalist war aims in Ukraine: “Gerasimov, who approved and did not push back on Russia’s disastrous February 2022 war plan, is unlikely to begin resisting Putin now. Putin may alternatively perceive the threat of further Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2023 and intend for Gerasimov to strengthen Russian forces against these likely attacks.”

“The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023. Russian sources are increasingly also acknowledging that Russia’s ammunition and supply shortages are decisively impeding the ability of Russian forces to advance. Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar, despite numerous claims from Russian sources,” the ISW wrote on its website.

The Institute says that Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theater.