Political scientist: Russian troops may fall into trap they prepared for Ukrainian army

Taking into account the supply of additional military equipment, a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be expected in the second half of March, Ukrainian political scientist Yuriy Raykhel told Report.

Commenting on the recent developments around the Ukrainian cities of Soledar and Bakhmut, where fierce fighting continues, the political scientist noted that currently, all attention in Ukraine and the Russian Federation is focused primarily on Soledar.

"This city is located at a distance of about 16-20 km from Bakhmut. When the Russian command realized the futility of the attack on Bakhmut, it tried to bypass the city from the south, but failed, and now they are trying to surround Bakhmut from the north, through Soledar. Large enemy forces are concentrated in that direction, particularly the Wagner PMC, as well as the remaining landing units of the Russian army," the political scientist said.

According to him, as a result of intense battles for Soledar, Ukrainian troops retreated to the west - to a more convenient position for defense: "This is a higher bank of the river, and there is also a railway there."

The political scientist noted that the battles for Soledar are directly related to the situation around Bakhmut:

"From a military-strategic point of view, according to the Russian military leadership, the capture of Bakhmut would open the way to Kramatorsk and ensure further advancement to the west in the Donetsk Oblast. After all, they are faced with the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk Oblast, which they cannot do. They tried to do it through Avdiivka, but it didn't work out, and now the last chord is they are trying to take Ukrainian troops into the operational encirclement in the Bakhmut-Soledar link in order to somehow solve this strategic task. And it is not completely solved, because there are heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in the west of Bakhmut and Soledar.

And there is a propaganda task, from the point of view of the Russian leadership, no less important than the military-strategic one. After the losses at Makiivka, the Russian side lost almost 30,000 people in the assault on Bakhmut, and now Soledar. Nearly 40 percent of PMC Wagner died in Soledar, and this is a huge figure. But of course, they will not talk about this on Russian television, they will talk about how successfully they are supposedly moving forward."

The Soledar-Bakhmut direction is also crucial because two strategically important points are located in the northeast of it - Kreminna-Svatovo, in the direction of which the offensive of the Ukrainian army is developing:

"The liberation of Kreminna, first of all, will allow the Ukrainian army to gain superiority over the Russian troops that are now in Soledar. They prepared the encirclement of the Ukrainian army and now they themselves may be surrounded. And the liberation of Svatovo- Kreminna will create the conditions for a direct attack on Luhansk," Yuriy Raykhel said.

The Ukrainian political scientist believes that despite the statements of the Russian command that they have captured Soledar and control it, in fact, this is just a tactical move:

"It is much more important to save our soldiers and officers, and then we will liberate the territories when the enemy is bled dry or cannot be fully supplied, their logistics will be disrupted, as was the case in the Kherson Oblast. Despite the victorious timpani in the Russian Federation, in fact, the situation is not as favorable as they report."

"It is very important how further events will develop, whether further attempts of the Russian offensive on the western part of Soledar will continue," Raykhel said, noting that for the counteroffensive, Ukrainian troops are likely to wait for additional military assistance, which will be discussed on January 20 in Ramstein.

Apparently, the West will supply Ukraine with heavy armored vehicles, including tanks, some types of long-range artillery, and longer-range missiles. And if this comes true and such a decision is made in Ramstein, then most likely, in the next 3-4 weeks, Ukrainian troops will be able to disrupt Russian logistics in the Donbas, on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson Oblast, as well as in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and launch a counteroffensive on one or more directions - this is what the Russian command is terribly afraid of, and now it is hastily forming and transferring additional units from those that were not sufficiently trained and mobilized to occupy defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The breakthrough of the Ukrainian troops in the direction of Melitopol and Berdyansk will ensure the complete defeat of the Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, the land isolation of the Crimea, the access of Ukrainian troops to the Azov coast, and thereby completely neutralize everything that Russia achieved with its aggression last spring," the expert said.