Baku. 29 December. REPORT.AZ/ Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will not make concessions to Azerbaijan, fearing the creation of additional grounds for domestic discontent.
The head of the Center for International Policy Institute analysis of globalization and social movements, political analyst Mikhail Neyzhmakov said that to Report, commenting on the passing year in the context of progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In 2014, the tension in the conflict zone severely increased. At least twice - in August and November - many observers do not rule out the resumption of large-scale war in the region, said M. Neyzhmakov.
He noted that, however, armed incidents have not escalated into a protracted conflict.
According to him, the influence of the same factors that in the past year have kept both sides of the conflict on the scale of opposition will continue and even intensify in 2015.
Prospects for the new projects related to the development of the Southern Gas Corridor, make a renewed war undesirable for Azerbaijan.
At the same time, the Armenian leadership in a warming of the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, as well as foreign policy and the economic difficulties of its key partner, Russia, most likely, will also try to avoid conflict to transfer into a hot phase, - said the analyst.M.Neyzhmakov added that, moreover, the leading players in world politics, which have their own interests in the region, are not interested in an escalation of the conflict.
Partnership with regional powers to get here rear bases for operations against the IS may be important to them - he said.
In addition, the head of the center said that Russia, involved in the conflict around the Donbass does not want the opening of a second front in the South Caucasus.
Referring to the theme of mediation in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the analyst noted the increased efforts the OSCE Minsk Group has intensified in the second half of 2014, due to rising tensions in the region.
He expressed the view in this context, the most effective steel Russia's mediation efforts, citing as an example the meeting of presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan, mediated by the head of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, Stop the Surge between Baku and Yerevan.
M. Neyzhmakov noted that Russia will have an additional incentive to prevent the escalation of conflicts in the region. Moscow now has high hopes for cooperation with Turkey, including in the energy sector. Turkey, as a Black Sea state, may have an impact on the Ukrainian crisis.In case of renewal of the hot Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, directly or indirectly, Moscow and Ankara will be drawn, and on opposite sides of the front, which, of course, lead to a deterioration of the Russian-Turkish relations.Therefore, most likely, in 2015, Moscow will show the greatest efforts in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict among all the OSCE Minsk Group, said the analyst.
M. Neyzhmakov stressed that one should not expect a major breakthrough in the settlement of the conflict in the coming year.He attributed this to the fact that the productive talks in one degree or another involve concessions from the Armenian side, on that Yerevan can not go.
But in the face of rising activity of the opposition, the Armenian leadership is unlikely to make such concessions, fearing to create additional reasons for domestic discontent, said the head of the center.