EBRD expects emerging markets GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts GDP growth in emerging markets of Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and North Africa at 2.8% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025, Report informs referring to the EBRD report.

"Growth in the EBRD regions is expected at 2.8 percent in 2024, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2025. This represents downward revisions relative to the May 2024 forecast (of 0.2 of a percentage point (pp) in 2024 and 0.1 pp in 2025) reflecting a weaker outlook for advanced Europe, stagnating mining output in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and severe droughts in Morocco and Tunisia," reads the report.

For comparison, the economies of these countries grew by 3.4% in 2022 and by 2.6% in 2023.

"Disinflation proceeded largely as expected. Average inflation in the EBRD regions declined from 17.5 percent at its peak in October 2022 to 5.8 percent in July 2024 but remained 1.6 percentage points above the pre-pandemic average. This pattern is broadly similar to the one observed in advanced economies.As inflation declined, real wages resumed growth after several quarters of declines, boosting household consumption," the EBRD added.