Bulgaria unlikely to export more gas from Azerbaijan until summer 2022

Azerbaijan and Bulgaria have clearly agreed plans on the volume of gas supplies from October 2021 to the middle of next year, so no increase in the pumping of Azerbaijani gas is expected, Report informs, citing sources that commented on the statements of the Bulgarian side about plans to increase supplies from Azerbaijan and referred to the conditions agreed by the parties in September.

Bulgaria has been receiving Azerbaijani gas since the beginning of the year, but hoped for on an increase in supplies from October.

“For nine months of 2021, Bulgaria received about 225 million cubic meters of gas, or 25 million cubic meters per month from Azerbaijan along the Kulata-Sidirokastro route (an alternative route used by Interconnector Greece Bulgaria - IGB has not yet been built). Similar volumes will be delivered by July 2022. And in July, the IGB is expected to be put into operation, which will make it possible to supply 1 billion cubic meters of fuel contracted in 2013 from the Shah Deniz field," an informed source said.

On average, 1,000 cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas cost Bulgaria $150 in 2021 (input from the State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan on actual sales). Bulgaria is happy with this price, since many other European countries are forced to pay several times more for gas.

In early October, Bulgargaz reported that the price for gas sold by the company on the domestic market is about 20% lower than prices at European gas hubs, mainly due to commercially attractive supplies of Azerbaijani gas. Another gas supplier to Bulgaria is the Russian Gazprom. Starting in October Bulgargaz raises domestic prices for consumers in the country by more than 36% due to the European gas crisis.

Europe is currently experiencing a gas collapse, mostly blamed on Gazprom. According to European companies, the Russian monopolist is holding back export volumes. In September, the average value of a day-ahead contract at the TTF hub in the Netherlands - the main gas platform in Europe - was $759 per thousand cubic meters, and since the beginning of October, futures contracts have been breaking new records almost every day.

This situation has intensified consultations both within the EU (checking price manipulation) and with gas suppliers to Europe.

The Kremlin announced on October 6 that Gazprom is close to record levels of gas supplies to Europe, that the limits are fully ensured under the existing contracts, and Gazprom is in constant contact with its counterparties in Europe (statement by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov).

Bulgaria also believes that the price of natural gas in Europe is overstated due to the actions of Gazprom.

"Azerbaijani gas was almost 50% cheaper than Russian gas, but Bulgaria cannot import the entire agreed volume from Shah Deniz due to the fact that IGB is not yet ready. Otherwise, in 2021, gas would be cheaper for Bulgaria," said the head of Bulgargaz Nikolai Pavlov on October 1.

Bulgaria imports about 3 billion cubic meters of gas a year, and a 25-year contract signed with the Azerbaijani side in 2013 provides for a third of Bulgaria's gas needs through supplies from Shah Deniz.