FP: Lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy

A surprise offensive launched by Syrian rebels capturing significant parts of Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities, and advancing south into Hama province —the most substantial territorial gain by rebel forces in nearly a decade—struck at the heart of what Russia once considered its defining achievement in Syria: the 2016 recapture of Aleppo, Foreign Policy said in an article titled “What the Fall of Aleppo Means for Russia,” Report informs.

A lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy, reads the article.

In December 2016, Russian airpower, in coordination with Iranian-backed forces and the Syrian army, retook the city in an operation that demonstrated Moscow’s military effectiveness and cemented its role as the decisive external actor in Syria. “The loss of Aleppo thus represents not just a military setback but a symbolic challenge to Russia’s claim of being able to decisively shape Syria’s future,” Foreign Policy said.

According to the American news publication, for Russia, the loss of regime control in Aleppo reveals deeper vulnerabilities in its Syrian strategy. The degradation of key ground forces such as Hezbollah—exacerbated by Israeli strikes against their commanders, forces, and logistics in Lebanon and Syria in recent months—and the endemic weakness of the Syrian army have created military gaps that Moscow has struggled to fill due to its primarily aerial deployment in Syria.

“While Russia’s airpower in Syria remains relatively consistent with its 2018 levels, the redeployment of some ground forces in the past two years to secure strategic locations such as Tartus and Latakia has reduced its flexibility to address new threats effectively. Yet with established regional influence and significant military investments at stake, Russia cannot afford to retreat from Syria despite these mounting challenges. The naval base in Tartus secures Russia’s access to the Mediterranean, a critical geostrategic asset, while the Khmeimim air base near Latakia enables Moscow to project power across the region and maintain its role as a key player in Syria and beyond,” Foreign Policy said.