Report presents an interview with Deputy Chairman of the Russian community in Azerbaijan, political observer Anastasia Lavrina:
- From time to time, the Armenian side carries out provocations on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, leading to casualties from both sides. In the light of the frankly provocative statements of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan, is this an attempt to make Armenian citizens believe that Russia is not capable of defending Armenia, and is it dictated by the desire of the Armenian establishment to escape from the Kremlin’s protection to attract other forces more loyal to Armenia to the region?
- At a recent meeting with CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas, Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan openly stated that he was dissatisfied with the organization’s actions, thus expressing the offense of the Armenian government for the failed visit of the secretary-general to Yerevan in May. We all remember how during the Second Karabakh War, and even after, the CSTO didn’t buy to provocations by Armenia, well understanding all the attempts of Yerevan to provoke the situation. Azerbaijan is a victorious country that put an end to the 30-year-old Armenian occupation in just 44 days. Do we need provocations at the border now? Of course, no! It is challenging for Armenia to admit its defeat, so it decided first to blame Turkey for everything and now to shift the responsibility for its defeat to the CSTO, particularly Russia.
I don’t think Armenia is trying to escape from the protection of Russia. That would be rather stupid, considering how dependent Yerevan is on Moscow. Nor should we forget the tripartite statement of November 10 that ended the war. Armenia is not going to spoil relations with Western partners. Financial assistance from some Western partners, the Armenian lobby in many countries, including the EU states, is not a burden for Yerevan. In addition, several states, loyal forces express their readiness to support Armenia, even if it is not right, just to annoy Moscow. Armenia makes good use of this. Well, of course, there are those in Armenia who blame Russia for their troubles and, to please these circles, the country’s officials sometimes come out with anti-Russian slogans.
- The fourth paragraph of the trilateral statement dated November 10, 2020, envisaged the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. However, until now, the Armenian armed forces have not been withdrawn from these territories. Do you think such a demarche of the Armenian side damages the image of the Russian peacekeeping mission in the region?
- Some political circles of Armenia and representatives of the puppet regime pin their hopes on the Russian peacekeepers. Still, it is worth remembering that they did not come to these lands forever. And while there is time, it would be better for Armenia to agree to the conclusion of a peace treaty. However, Yerevan is trying in every possible way to postpone and slow down the process of signing a peace treaty with Baku. The provocations arranged by the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces in Karabakh, of course, expose the Russian peacekeepers because the responsibility lies with them. That’s why it is desirable to insist on the soonest withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces from Azerbaijani Karabakh. I think Russia is also well aware that provocations are initiated to bring additional forces loyal to Armenia, say, the US or France, to the region. Nobody needs this, and therefore it is necessary to speed up the withdrawal of the remaining Armenian troops that are deployed there illegally.
Azerbaijan has already ended the issue of ‘status’ and won’t even return to its discussion. In this case, why are the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces needed on the lands of Azerbaijan? Ethnic Armenians living there are citizens of Azerbaijan, and their safety will be monitored by the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan together with Russian peacekeepers. The rest are superfluous there.
- In your opinion, may the policy of narrow-minded chauvinism, to which the Armenian ruling circles are committed, and revanchist sentiments in Yerevan lead to another escalation and bloody battles? What can the current explosive situation on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border bring?
- It will turn into suicide for Armenia as a state. President Ilham Aliyev and President Vladimir Putin spoke about this. Two of the three leaders whose signatures are on the November 10 statement. Militarily, Armenia is destroyed, its army is defeated. Russia or anyone else is not going to fight for Armenia. No one in the region is interested in the escalation of tension and the start of hostilities. All countries talk about the importance of developing communications, transport, logistics, and economic projects, and only Armenia doesn’t calm down. Yerevan declared its readiness to solve problems by force, but the CSTO didn’t support this statement. The CSTO secretary general insisted on the need for a political dialogue. One shouldn’t forget about Turkey, which is ready to provide support to Azerbaijan when necessary. In the ‘Shusha Declaration,’ it is written in black and white that ‘Baku and Ankara will help each other in the event of a threat or encroachment by third forces on the independence or territorial integrity of either side.’ Everything points to a desperate situation in Armenia. Today, the situation on the border is unsettled. Still, if sane people remain in Yerevan, they should push the leadership to sign peace with Baku because sooner or later, any patience will end.
Nadia Kafarova