The current account is forecast to return to surplus, equal to 3.9% of GDP in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, as oil prices and petroleum output revive, Report informs, citing Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021: Financing a Green and Inclusive Recovery.
According to the document, all exports — notably petroleum, fruit, vegetables, and cotton — are projected to grow by 29.2% in 2021 and 0.7% in 2022.
Imports are projected to increase by 9.2% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022 as recovery raises incomes and consumer spending. The service deficit should narrow as transportation and tourism gradually recover, but the income account deficit will likely widen as higher oil income spurs profit repatriation abroad. Gross reserves, including SOFAZ assets, are projected to rise marginally to $50.1 billion at the end of 2021 and, with prudent management of SOFAZ assets, to $50.4 billion a year later. Public and publicly guaranteed external debt is projected to fall to the equivalent of 20.0% of GDP at the end of 2021 and 18.4% a year later.