Baku. 5 March. REPORT.AZ/ The results of the next monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on March 8 and the views expressed by Mario Draghi at the press conference after the meeting will have a serious impact on the euro exchange rate.
Analytical Group of Report News Agency believes, it is not expected that the ECB will change its discount rate.
That is, the discount rate will be confirmed at 0%, deposit interest rates - 0.4% and marginal lending - 0.25%. Mario Draghi will hold a press conference 45 minutes after the meeting, namely at 17:30 Baku time. He is expected to touch upon inflation acceleration and ending of current monetary stimulus program which is 2.5 trillion euro ($ 3.07 trln) at present.
The analysts predict that the ECB will hold a waiting position on the backdrop of recent fluctuations in global financial markets. The organization is not expected to change monetary policy until the summer. Only then it would be possible to disclose a specific date for ending monetary stimulus program.
At a press conference, the ECB is expected to make new macroeconomic forecasts. In fact, no serious changes are expected here.
Notably, due to the low inflation rate, the monetary stimulus prolonged until the end of September 2018.
Analytical Group predicts the euro to fall on the eve of ECB's meeting and after. The USD/EUR ratio may drop to 1.2 this week. However, a serious trend is not expected in the exchange rate. It is projected that the USD / EUR ratio will remain within the range of 1.19-1.27 a year. It is likely that the exchange rate to reach parity in 2019, and drop to 0,84 USD/EUR before the 2022.
By 2022, discount rate in US is expected to rise to 6-8%.