Baku. 7 December. REPORT.AZ/ Unrests are observed again in Armenia. The neighboring country is entering into the next phase of intense. Firstly, President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan raised the cost of electricity for the population, and protesters went out to the streets. The standoff lasted for weeks, the issue was nearly ended by the revolution. And now, by making a constitutional amendment, Sargsyan split Armenian society.
According to the constitutional changes, Armenia will become a parliamentary republic. This means that powers of the prime minister will surpass presidential powers and the head of state is elected by parliament. It is necessary for Sargsyan, in order to take an even higher post of Prime Minister when he farewells with the presidential chair in 2018. However, the active part of the Armenian society does not want to obey the capricious desires of the president. As for the Armenian opposition, opposing the constitutional amendments, it also feels his strength before the upcoming presidential elections and gathers a dissatisfied electorate.
Each time, the higher political tension in Armenia is, the more situation in the frontline region escalates. Apparently, in difficult moments Sargsyan goes on in the frontline region diversion to distract public attention from social and political issues, and send it to the Nagorno-Karabakh and the border with Azerbaijan and thereby raises the nationalistic spirit of the population.
Creating tension in the frontal region, he also wants to reach another goal.
Sargsyan and his surroundings are trying to take advantage of the strength of the Russian-Turkish relations for their own purposes.
For example, close to the Kremlin, some Russian experts spread subversive statements that allegedly Turkey is trying to involve Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia, Ankara managed to create a problem out of Syria, that is, in the South Caucasus.
Make such statements, Russian experts cite the "suspicious" visits of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in a short time to Baku. The reality is that every time after the elections in Turkey, victorious politicians make their first foreign visit to Azerbaijan. It is based on the strategic partnership.
Violating ceasefire on the frontline on Sargsyan's instructions, the Armenian army hopes to exacerbate the situation.
The aim is to show that allegedly after the visits of Turkish officials to Baku, the situation in the frontal region escalates. By this official Yerevan hopes for Russia's interference in the process from the Armenian side.
However, the policy utilized by Yerevan is an effective boomerang. In the front region, Azerbaijan give a fitting rebuff to the enemy, who is forced to retreat with heavy losses. Russia also keeps silent, as it is aware that the Azerbaijani army's plans do not includ the attack on Armenia, and our army only destroys the occupier positions over Nagorno-Karabakh. This also corresponds to the strategy of President Ilham Aliyev on "what the Armenian soldier or an officer does in Agdam and Fizuli." With its response to the attack, the Azerbaijani army violates not only Serzh Sargsyan's plans, but further exacerbates the situation of the Armenian army, which was faced with losses. Mothers of Armenian soldiers cannot understand for whom and for what these losses are suffered, and therefore, each time they gather in front of the Presidential Administration.
At the time of deterioration in the political and social situation in Armenia, the importance of the meeting of Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia is gradually decreasing. The OSCE Minsk Group intended to organize ameeting of the presidents in the beginning of December in Paris. However, due to a number of objective reasons it did not happen, since there was no ground for the Paris meeting and no progress in the negotiation process was observed and Sargsyan was not planning to leave the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Now the co-chairs said that the presidents would meet at the end of December. The Sargsyan' seat has shaken. Therefore, the probability of such a meeting is not high. The meeting is important for Sargsyan to prolong the status quo. And we do not need this...
Elkhan Shahinoglu special for Report