Report: Dollar will drop to 1,40-1,45 AZN/USD

Baku. 28 January. REPORT.AZ/ Oil prices on the world market will increase from next month. Prior to that, there is a possibility of another price fall below 30 USD a barrel. From the beginning of February the prices will gradually rise to 38 USD / barrel and will then fluctuate between 45-50 USD / barrel. This forecast was made by analytical group of Report agency.

Note that according to the results of the meeting held yesterday (27 January), Federal Reserve System (FRS) has not changed its benchmark interest rate, keeping it in the range of 0.25-0.50%. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emphasized the need for compliance with the US economy and global economic conditions for the next increase in interest rates at Fed's March meeting. After the statement by Yellen expectations of key rate in March decreased from 25% to 19%.

Report analysts believe that to continue the process of raising interest rates it is needed to change the positive trend of some indicators of the US economy, in particular, inflation, unemployment and economic activity.A necessary condition for the growth of inflation in US is to increase oil prices.However, it will happen given the current situation in the oil market.That is, taking into account factors such as the entry of Iranian oil and the preservation of volumes of oil shale in the United States, the rise in oil prices capped at 50 USD / barrel.In addition, to continue to increase the key rate a positive trend in the global economy is required, which creates the need for growth of global stock markets in the future.

"Against the background of the above items it is expected to strengthen manat and increase confidence in the national currency.As a result, by the middle of 2016 the rate is projected to decline to 1,40-1,45 AZN / USD, then we can observe a slight weakening of the manat depending on the situation in global markets and oil prices ", - concluded Report analysts.