Tomas de Waal: A new conflict in South Caucasus the last thing anyone wants

Baku. 26 January. REPORT.AZ/ A new conflict in the Caucasus could lead to thousands of casualties and economic devastation, without resolving the core issues of the dispute.

Report informs, British political expert Tomas de Waal writes in his article published on Carnegie Foundation website for international peace.

He noted that both Azerbaijan and Armenia were actively purchasing weapons and the region has become one of most militarized zones.

He underlined the international turbulence - the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, ongoing crises in the EU as another factor of instability, which may cause resumption of the conflict: “If there is fighting, it will be hard to manage”. In April 2016, Moscow negotiated a verbal ceasefire between the parties.

T.de Waal believes it is a misconception to think that Moscow is pulling the strings in the Karabakh conflict: “Moscow has never been in control since the dispute broke out in 1988, having tried variously to back one side or the other or to mediate. Currently, Russia is highly distrusted in both countries and neither Baku nor Yerevan will allow it to impose its own agenda on their number one national issue”.

Expert notes that the threat of preemptive violence over Karabakh needs to be met with intense preemptive diplomacy: “A descent into new conflict in the South Caucasus is the last thing anyone wants, least of all the ordinary Armenians and Azerbaijanis who will be caught in the middle of it”.