Experts: Risk of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalation is quite high in 2018

Moscow. 26 December. REPORT.AZ/ Russia has always tried to take a balanced position in relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Timofeyev told the Russian bureau of Report News Agency, commenting on results of the outgoing year and forecasts for the next year in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.

"This year the situation seems to have become normalized due to negotiations, but we can not discount the real risk of resumption of hostilities. The logic of any escalation, and especially in the Caucasus, suggests that some decisions can be made, just not to get outplayed. In the Caucasus region, self-esteem is important for everyone, so diplomacy here should be very cautious”, Timofeyev said.

According to him, Moscow can not pressure both Baku and Yerevan to change the situation in the conflict, since it is "counterproductive."

"Russia should take on the role of an "honest broker" and not lose the trust of the parties. Russia has always tried to take a balanced position in relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia”, Timofeyev stressed.

The expert noted that Russia does not want relations with Azerbaijan to go to the detriment of relations with Armenia and vice-versa.

"It's very difficult to live in a situation where two of your historical partners and friends are in a state of conflict. Therefore, the role of Moscow should be intermediate. Believe me, Russia is the first country in the world that is interested in the conflict being settled", program director of the RIAC said.

Notably, RIAC has published the foreign policy results of 2017 and the forecast for 2018.

A big place in the report was occupied by the section "Russia and the CIS countries", in which, in particular, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is considered. In particular, the report notes that the most important achievement of Russian diplomacy in 2017 in this direction was the preservation of stability in the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh and the balanced development of relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Predicting the development of events in 2018, Russian experts considered the risk of resuming local hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh quite high.

In their opinion, this will also be affected by the presidential elections planned for the next year in both countries.