WSJ: Without Washington’s influence, Russia and Iran to disrupt Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process

The US now recognizes that, absent greater American involvement in the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the normalization of relations and a peace treaty, Russia and Iran will spoil the peace process, reads an article by Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Report informs referring to The Wall Street Journal.

The author’s article notes that in addition to the US, Russian President Vladimir Putin also took on the role of an intermediary. A true resolution of the conflict would obviate the need for Russian forces in Karabakh, one of his two major tools for forcing Baku to respect his will.

“Meanwhile, Russia has an unassailable military position in Armenia, home to at least three Russian bases. Russian soldiers patrol key segments of Armenia’s borders, and Russian military officers entirely control Armenian air space.”

“By contrast, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been remarkably successful at wiggling free of Moscow’s control - more successful than almost all other leaders of former Soviet republics. While fostering strong economic ties with Europe, to which Azerbaijan supplies oil and gas, Aliyev has simultaneously developed deep and enduring defense ties with Türkiye and Israel.

Its triangular alignment with Türkiye and Israel especially terrifies Tehran, not least because of the support it has among Iranian Azerbaijanis, who constitute at least one-fifth of the country’s population and are the largest non-Persian ethnic group.

Consequently, Tehran works with Moscow and Yerevan, in a tripartite axis designed to counterbalance the Turkish-Israeli-Azerbaijani alignment. The axis is working to scuttle the peace talks. It has been aided, indirectly, by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has devoted significant energy to diplomacy in the South Caucasus, where his efforts clearly favor Armenia over Azerbaijan.

France is home to a large Armenian community. Thanks to its influence and to Mr. Macron’s penchant for idiosyncratic initiatives on the international stage, Paris has taken positions that, on balance, strengthen the Russian and Iranian game in the South Caucasus.

In November he saw himself as the facilitator of European mediation led by Charles Michel, president of the European Council. In the meantime, however, Macron has, among other steps, pressured Michel to invite him, Macron, directly into the negotiations. These antics have made the European mediation illegitimate in Baku’s eyes.”

Blinken now recognizes that the American track offers the only viable path to coaxing Armenia to make peace and, thereby, limit the forms of cooperation with the Russian-Iranian alliance that threaten US interests.

The major sticking point in the negotiations is the status of the Karabakh region. The conflict won’t end until Armenia recognizes it as sovereign Azerbaijani territory. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan doesn’t sound ready to take that step. “Russian peacekeepers must keep the Lachin corridor under control and ensure the operation of the corridor,” Mr. Pashinyan said Thursday, referring to the strip of land that connects Armenia to Karabakh. “No one except Russia has the right to control the corridor,” the author added.

“If Yerevan will only come around, the US and its allies can work with it and Baku to safeguard the welfare of the Armenians of Karabakh without relying on Russian troops.

Unfortunately for Blinken, many influential friends of the Armenian-American community, such as Sen. Bob Menendez and Rep. Adam Schiff, refuse to urge Yerevan in this direction. Will the friends of Armenia inside the Democratic Party trip him up? The next few days may provide us with the answer.”