Chatham House expert: External actors can help resolve Karabakh conflict

"Without a deeper institutionalization of the peace process, progress is unlikely," Laurence Broers, Chatham House Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, said in his article.

The article notes that the agreements reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia as part of the recent meetings of the leaders and foreign ministers of the two countries sustain a positive outlook for the long-stagnant peace talks.

"Leadership rapport is of course crucial. But without a deeper institutionalization of the peace process, progress is unlikely," the expert believes.

He said that while the basic parameters of Armenia’s foreign policy remain unchanged, Nikol Pashinyan’s Karabakh policy is subject domestically to a tense dynamic between three major actors.

"First, his own government is for now highly legitimate but not strongly institutionalized. Pashinyan’s ‘My Step’ alliance is a broad coalition, he came to power without a disciplined party machine," the article says.

As a second player he called the former Republican Party of Armenia is re-grouping as a new opposition, expanding into public space with new media and civil society institutions.

"The former political elite increasingly frames itself as the guardian of national-patriotic values against Pashinyan’s liberal politics, auguring a vicious ‘culture war’."

The author believes that none of the parties is ready to move towards a ‘big bang’ peace agreement, while low-cost confidence building alone is insufficient to build trust.

"Yet it is important that, for now, violence has receded. This is in and of itself an opportunity not to be wasted. In this situation, the real peacebuilding space lies in incremental measures, new patterns or issue areas of cooperation that necessitate a political investment by the parties and introduce some routine and predictability in their interactions," the expert said.

He expressed the view that external actors can help by building out a broader peacebuilding infrastructure.