World Bank: China will crush Russia's oil and gas sector

Baku. 17 November. REPORT.AZ/ The economic transformations taking place in China and India are having subtle and indirect impacts on Russia’s economic growth, and will continue to do so over the next decade.

Report informs, says the report named "A rebalancing China and resurging India. How will the pendulum swing for Russia?".

According to report, Russia's prospects for new market searches are weak. Over the decade, Russia in its category is behind emerging markets in terms of export. The share of exports in GDP declined from 33% in 2005-2007 to 28% in 2013-2015. Russia’s trade with China has increased substantially in recent decades: merchandise trade between the two nations has almost tripled over the past ten years. Moreover, Russia’s trade with India has increased more than 15% in the last five years.

The report notes that the Chinese economy's growth rate will drop from the current 6.5% to 4.6% by 2030.

The result will be felt in all economic areas of Russia.The decline in the service sector will be 8% and in the oil and gas sector - 24%. Oil and gas exports to China by 2030 will drop by 18% from the current level. As a result, Russian ruble rate will fall further.

Even if the current rate of growth in India's economy rises from 6% to 8% in 2030, Russia will benefit less from that, and the impact of economic growth will be only 0.06% by 2030.

For comparison, share of exports to China in the structure of aggregate exports is 11% and 2% in India: “In general, changes in Chinese and Indian economies will bring many problems to the Russian economy”.