Baku. 30 July. REPORT.AZ/ Decline in oil prices on world markets to $40/barrel may force Russia to urgently raise the discount rate.
This was stated by 65% of the economists involved in conducting the survey in late July, agency Bloomberg. In their view, if the oil price will remain at $40 per barrel this year, the Russian economy will shrink by 5%. It should be noted that the Central Bank of Russia in this year lowered the discount rate for 4 times.
Report informs, 39% of economists predict a strengthening of capital controls in Russia following the example of Greece, 22% of respondents do not exclude taking control of some banks from the state or large banks.
According to the survey, the cost of oil at $40 a barrel in 2015, may help to reduce the Russian ruble by 65%. For this reason, the economy will shrink this year by 5%, but in 2016 by 1%.
The weakening of the Russian ruble will increase the pressure on the currencies of countries, which have close trade links with Russia. Especially due to changes, the Russian economy could be seriously affected by the national currencies of CIS countries.