Stagnation in Russia will last 20 years

Baku. 20 October. REPORT.AZ/ In 2035, state capitalism, stagnation, low oil prices, declining population and modest wage growth will remain in Russia. Report informs referring to Gazeta.ru, prove initial figures of Russian Ministry of Economic Development of long-term forecasts of socio-economic development.

According to the basic variant, industrial production growth rate for all forecasted 18 years don’t exceed 2% per year. In the post-election 2025 year, they will amount to 1.9% of growth in comparison with 2024 and will be reduced to 1.7% per year in 2035. The government has already agreed that industry in 2017 will up by 1.1% compared to the current year.

Investments in fixed capital in a long term will animate a little bit and to show the growth in 2025 to 3.2% against 0.8% in 2017, according to the Economic Development Ministry, but in 2035, dynamics of investment will decline to 2.5% per year.

This model is clearly not intended to diversify commodity economy. Oil prices will be still important. In 2025, a barrel of Brent in 2017 will grow to $5 - from 40 to 45 dollars. In 2035, oil price is planned to be 54.9 dollars per barrel. As a result, GDP will grow by 2.2% per year in 2025 (in 2017 growth rate will be 0.6%) in 2035 - 1.7% per year.

In addition, baseline rate in 2025 will amount to 76,9 RUS/USD, whereas in 2035 it will grow to 78,4 RUS/USD. By 2025, economically active population will fall from 72.3 million to 69 million people, in 2035- to 68.1 million people.

Notably, basic variant is considered a primary by the government to build a budget for the forthcoming three-year.