S&P: Azerbaijan's external asset position will mitigate potential adverse effects on economic development

Azerbaijan will post 3% of GDP general government and 10.8% of GDP current account surpluses in 2022, after estimated twin surpluses in 2021, said a statement by S&P Global Ratings, Report informs.

According to the agency's experts, the results of 2021 show that the surplus is expected to be 10.1% of GDP. In 2020, there was a deficit of 0.5%.

A surplus of 4.5% of GDP is expected in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024, while in 2025, this ratio will be 0.5%.

"Based on our 2022 Brent oil price forecast of $75/bbl and projected 4% increase in oil production to an average of 0.77 mbpd as OPEC+ cuts moderate, we expect the current account will post a surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022, following an estimated 10% of GDP surplus in 2021. The launch of the SDII gas project back in 2018 and its further expansion over the next three-to-four years should support Azerbaijan's external performance. However, this is offset over the medium term in our projections by declining oil production, while imports rebound as domestic consumption recovers and the authorities deliver on planned reconstruction activities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Combined with our assumption that oil prices will decline to $55 in 2024, remaining at the same level in the subsequent years," the statement said.

According to the Agency, Azerbaijan's strong external stock position will remain a core rating strength, reinforced by the large amount of foreign assets accumulated in SOFAZ: "We estimate that external liquid assets will surpass external debt through 2025. Although Azerbaijan remains vulnerable to potential terms-of-trade volatility, we consider that its large net external asset position will serve as a buffer that could mitigate the potential adverse effects of economic cycles on domestic economic development."