Report: This year budget revenues from oil sector in Azerbaijan will remain stable - ANALYSIS

Baku. 13 February. REPORT.AZ/ State Budget for2016 in Azerbaijan from the oil sector is expected to be lower than the amount forecasted in the foreign currency.Thus, despite planned current base price of oil at 50 USD / barrel this year in the budget, average Azerbaijani oil price is expected to be lower in reporting year. Although, earlier the Finance Ministry stated that the budget will be revised base price of oil will be set at level of 30 USD official information about it has not publicized yet.

But taking into account the statistics of previous years at an annual price of oil 40 - 30 USD per barrel, analysts group of "Report" calculated estimated revenues in foreign and local currencies from the oil sector of budget.

Note that in 2014 the average annual price of Azerbaijan oil was 101,51 dollar/barel and proceeds from the oil sector to the budget made 2,807 bln AZN or 3,58 bln USD. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (the SOCAR) paid 1 855,230 mln AZN ( 2 366,365 mln USD) to the budget in 2014, which is 17,8% more than in the previous year.

In addition, in 2014, the Company paid 141,240 mln AZN (180,153 mln USD) to the State Social Protection Fund.

Azerbaijani oil price was 54,74 USD / barrel last year, tax revenues from the oil sector to the budget have made 2,1 bln manats or 2 billion USD. SOCAR paid 1 480,195 mln AZN (1 409,710 mln USD) to the state budget in 2015.

In addition to the payment to the Fund by the Company in 2015, 139.294 mln AZN (132,660 mln USD) to the State Social Protection Fund.

"Report " analyst predict budget revenues from the oil sector in the amount of 1,74 bln AZN dollar/barel 1,1 bln USD (1,58 AZN/USD rate of) if the average price of oil will be 30 USD / barrel which is in manat equivalent less by 360 mln or 17,1% compared to the same period of 2015.

In other words if the average annual price of oil will be 30 USD/ barrel, average annual exchange rate of the dollar should be 1,90 AZN/USD to ensure the entry of 2,1 bln AZN to the budget.

If an average annual price of oil would be 40 dollar/barrel tax revenues from the oil sector to the budget will make 1,46 bln USD or 2,3 bln AZN with current rate which is in manat equivalent more by 200 mln or 9,5% compared to the same period of last year.

According to calculations by "Report" if an average annual price of oil would be 36,4 USD/ barrel, tax revenues to the state budget in manat equivalent will not change. That is, if we assume the average oil price in 2016 at this level, we can suggest that revenues from the oil sector in current year will remain stable.