Baku. 9 February. REPORT.AZ/ One of the US largest investment banks Morgan Stanley downgraded the outlook for Russia's GDP falling in 2016.
Report informs referring to Interfax news agency, the bank explains its decision to lower oil prices predicted earlier. Notably, according to the new forecast version in 2016, Russia's GDP will shrink by 2.1% in comparison with the previously forecasted reducement of 0.8%. In 2017, the Russian economy is expected to grow, but only 0.9% instead of 1.7%.
Earlier, Morgan Stanley analysts have warned that, despite earlier forecasts, world oil prices during the second half of 2016 will not grow and may even fall even more. If the forecast issued previously envisaged increase in the average cost of a barrel of Brent in October-December 2016 to 59 dollars, but now experts expect no growth, and falling to 29 dollars.
According to the baseline scenario, Morgan Stanley average price of a barrel of Brent will remain at $ 30-31 until the autumn of 2016 and in the last quarter dropped to 29 USD a barrel. In the pessimistic scenario, the average oil price may fall up to $20 per barrel.
Notably, the international Fitch rating agency has reported that it waits at the end of 2016 accelerated decline of Russia's GDP, and the slow pace of economic growth in 2017.