ING forecasts Azerbaijan inflation at 5% this year, 5.5% next

The Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group, forecasts that annual inflation in Azerbaijan will be 5% this year and 5.5% next year, Report informs, citing ING's updated data.

According to ING, expectations for 2026 have decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous forecast, while expectations for 2027 have increased by 0.9 percentage points.

According to the State Statistics Committee, average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 5.6% in 2025, compared to 2.2% in 2024.

ING analysts expect average annual inflation to be 5.8% in the first quarter of 2026 (previously 6%), 5.5% in the second quarter (previously 5.7%), 4.9% in the third quarter (previously 5.1%), and 4.6% in the fourth quarter (previously 5.9%).

According to forecasts by the Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation in the country will be 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Based on the Central Bank of Azerbaijan's latest forecasts (October 2025), annual inflation this year will be approximately 5.7%.

The United Nations, in turn, forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.1% this year. The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan to be 2.3% in 2026, while the Asian Development Bank expects it at 3.5%.

The international rating agency Moody's forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 3% this year, Fitch Ratings at 4.6%, and Fitch Solutions at 5.5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.