Fitch projects Azerbaijan's economic growth to accelerate to 2% in 2026

International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts a moderate acceleration of economic growth in Azerbaijan to 2% in 2026, following a significant slowdown in 2025.

According to the agency, cited by Report, a restrained fiscal policy and moderate credit growth are expected to offset the impact of higher energy prices on the country's economy.

Fitch also forecasts an acceleration in inflation. The agency estimates that average annual inflation will reach 6.1% in 2026, compared with 5.6% a year earlier.

"Increased logistic costs and food prices, combined with hikes in administered prices, will be partly balanced by the nominal appreciation of the manat against key trading partners," the agency said.

According to the State Statistics Committee, Azerbaijan"s nominal GDP totaled 39.8751 billion manats in January–April 2026, up 0.2% year-on-year.

Oil and gas GDP declined by 0.9% to 12.135 billion manats, while the non-oil sector expanded by 0.7% to 27.7401 billion manats.

The Azerbaijani government forecasts GDP growth of 1.7% in 2026.

In 2025, Azerbaijan's economy grew by 1.4%.

Consumer prices in Azerbaijan increased by 5.6% in January–April 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year.

Under the updated baseline scenario of the Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation is projected at 5.5% in 2026.