Fitch: Global GDP growth will decrease

Baku. 21 September. REPORT.AZ/ The international rating agency Fitch has lowered the forecast of the world GDP growth rates in 2019 by 0.1 percentage points, down to 3.1%.

Report informs citing the TASS that the change in the forecast is due to the escalation of the trade war between the US and China, Fitch states.

"Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.

Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.

One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%," Fitch says,

Notably, the 10-percent US duty on imported goods from China worth $ 200 bn will be introduced on September 24. From January 1, 2019, the tariffs will rise to 25%. China in return promised to introduce duties from 5% to 10% on US imports worth $ 60 bn.