Deutsche Bank raises forecast for global GDP growth in 2021

Deutsche Bank analysts predict global GDP growth at 6.8 percent in 2021 and 4.6 percent next year, Report informs referring to Interfax.

This is better than the November estimates, which were 5.9 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

Experts call significant progress in controlling the COVID pandemic and vaccinations, which could lead to herd immunity in the near future, as well as large-scale financial support measures in the US and Europe as favorable factors for the economy. In addition, analysts point to huge accumulated savings and pent-up demand that will be released as vaccinations progress.

The locomotives of the global recovery this year will be China, India and the United States.

Analysts expect an acceleration in consumer price growth this summer, but the jump in inflation is likely to be temporary.

Global GDP growth amount to 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, 1.4 percent in the second quarter, 1.8 percent in the third quarter, and 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

The US economy will expand by 1.5 percent, 2.1 percent, 2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. China’s GDP is expected to rise by 1.6 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

According to the baseline forecast, unemployment in the US will be 5.2 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2022, in Germany - 4.2 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in the UK - 6.1 percent and 6.3 percent, in Japan - 3.1 percent and 2.8 percent, in the eurozone - 8.5 percent in both years.