ADB raises inflation forecast for Caucasus and Central Asia region

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its inflation forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region for 2022 from 11.5% to 12.5%, Report informs referring to the December issue of the ADB report “Asian Development Outlook.”

The forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 8.5%

“Inflation persisted in many economies in the subregion, mainly reflecting high food prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and buoyant domestic demand,” reads the report.

Inflation in Azerbaijan rose to 13.4% in the year to September, also driven by rising food prices as supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine were disrupted, as well as by price hikes in the country’s trade partners.

“In the year to October, Georgia saw inflation average 12.4% as stronger tourism and multiple waves of Russian migrants stimulated domestic demand, sparking price hikes including for locally produced goods; Kazakhstan’s inflation rate accelerated to 13.9% as supply chain disruption from food export bans imposed by the Russian Federation left staple foods in short supply and pushed up domestic prices.

Sharp increases in food and energy prices in the Kyrgyz Republic lifted inflation there to 13.7%; and inflation in Uzbekistan accelerated to 11.2% as the liberalization of administered prices for domestic wheat brought higher prices for flour and bread. Contrary to the upward trend observed in other subregional economies, the average inflation rate in Tajikistan decelerated to 5.7% in the first 9 months of 2022 as discouragement of agricultural exports exerted downward pressure on farmgate prices.”