Expert: Rise in oil price depends on Saudi Arabia

Baku. 1 October. REPORT.AZ/ The decisive factor in the rise in oil prices will be whether the OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia will be able to meet the reduction in the supply of oil from Iran or not and whether they will want to do it or not, the editor of oil markets at Thomson Reuters Gleb Gorodyankin told Report.

According to the source, oil prices are currently pressured by three factors: "First, the world market is expecting reduction in oil output from Iran as a result of US sanctions. Second is the instability in output in Venezuela and Libya. Third, OECD members reduce output to below the five-year average level."

Как отметил эксперт, даже если европейские страны будут проводить политику содействия Ирану и часть покупателей иранской нефти не откажется, в любом случае ожидается, что предложения иранской нефти будут сокращаться.

По мнению Г. Городянкина, это говорит о том, что с одной стороны избытка на рынке нет, то есть ОПЕК действительно позволил убрать с рынка перевес предложения. С другой стороны, как подчеркнул эксперт, достаточно высокий рост спроса на сырье, а предложения хромают и, скорее всего, будут сокращаться на фоне антииранских санкций в ближайшие несколько месяцев. "То есть: устойчивый спрос и ограниченные предложения"

The expert noted that even if European countries pursue a policy supporting Iran and part of Iranian oil importers do not refuse it, oil output from Iran is expected to reduce. The source said that, on the one hand, this proves that there is not abundance in the market, that is the advantage of suggestion by OPEC is eliminated, and, on the other hand, supply declines and will probably continue to decline in the coming months, though high demand still remains: "That’s we face ‘limited supply against stable demand'."

Moreover, everyone is concerned about whether Saudi Arabia will increase the output or take steps towards increasing prices in case of decline in Iran’s oil. Generally, all oil exporting countries are keen on high oil price.