43 commercial airlines failed since January this year

Strong government support has stopped some airlines from going bankrupt — but more carriers could fail in the coming months, aviation experts say.

Travel data company, Cirium, found that 43 commercial airlines have failed since January this year, compared to 46 in the whole of 2019 and 56 in all of 2018. A failed airline is one that has wholly ceased or suspended operations, according to Cirium's definition.

"Without government intervention and support, we would have had mass bankruptcies in the first six months of this crisis. Instead, we have had a manageable number of bankruptcies, and very few collapses," said Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst at Sobie Aviation.
Sobie said many airlines were already struggling before the pandemic hit, but they now have a "better chance at survival" because of government help.

"If there is any silver lining in all of this, it is that things were so bad that governments had no option but to support," said Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at Cirium.

Despite the financial aid, however, the outlook for the rest of 2020 is "not encouraging," Morris said.
"Many airline failures typically occur in the final few months of the year," he told CNBC in an email. The first and fourth quarters are "the hardest" because most of the revenue is generated in the second and third quarters.

"I would typically characterize that airlines spend summers building 'war chests' so that they can survive winters," he added. Airlines' goal is to "survive at any cost" and see if the summer of 2021 brings solutions or higher demand. 

"With demand recovery in most regions stalled and airlines still struggling with revenue generation and cash outflow, we expect to see more failures in the final quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021 at least," he said.