Will US surrender Idlib to Turkey and Russia? - COMMENT

Baku. 19 September. REPORT.AZ/ Baku. 19 September. REPORT.AZ/  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in Syria on the first day of the week.

During their meeting in Sochi the presidents agreed to establish a demilitarised buffer zone in Idlib.

After the talks, the Turkish President said that he and his Russian counterpart discussed the situation in Syria in detail: “We agreed that by October 15 we will create a demilitarized zone at a 15-20 km depth along the contact line between the armed opposition and government troops.”

The demilitarized zone will be monitored by mobile patrol groups of Turkish army and Russian military police. By October 10, at the suggestion of the Turkish president, the parties agreed on the withdrawal of the heavy weapons, tanks, rockets systems and mortars of all opposition groups from that zone. Turkey and Russia will jointly monitor the province from October 15.

It is reported that Turkey accounts for 12 observation posts in Idlib, Russia has 10 and Iran owns few and their number will be increased. The presidents also said they would work together to clear terrorists from Syria’s Idlib.

Erdoğan said the fight against terrorists in Syria would not be limited to Idlib but noted that YPG and PYD (the wings of the terrorist PKK grouping) are among the main targets. He said that as a result of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations 4,000 sq km of Syria were cleared from ISIS and PKK terrorists: “We want similar steps to be taken in other areas controlled by YPG / PYD”.

Vladimir Putin said there was a danger of assault on Russia's military bases in Syria's Aleppo and Tartus provinces. He emphasized that all armed groups, including Al-Nusra, will be withdrawn from the area.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said after the press conference that military operations will not be held in Idlib.

On the day of Sochi talks between Erdoğan and Putin Iran announced that it would not join the military operation in Idlib. Spokesman of the Iranian foreign ministry Behram Qasimi said that they support the territorial integrity of Syria: "Therefore, we want to clear terrorists from Idlib.”

Notably, Iran was involved in military operations within Bashar al-Assad’s army. Official Tehran claims that they did not take part in the battles but instructed Assad's military.

During the night of talks between the presidents of Turkey and Russia Israel shelled the Syrian territory with rockets. Russia's military aircraft IL-20 was shot down over the Mediterranean on the night of September 17. 15 Russian servicemen were killed as a result. It is yet unknown which country downed the Russian aircraft. Following the crash Israel was reported to have done it. However, Israeli officials deny that. Even President Vladimir Putin also pointed out that it was an accident hinting that Israel did not hit the aircraft.

However, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said:

“I want to inform Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman that we will not leave this unanswered and will take respective actions.” He did not specify what the actions would be.

This shows that there is a difference of views between Putin and Shoygu.

The most convincing option in all cases is the accidental downing of the aircraft by the Syrian Air Forces since the incident happened when the Syrian Air Forces were trying to resist Israeli air attacks on the military facilities in Latakia.

Incidentally, the system and trainers used by Bashar al-Assad’s air forces are believed to belong to Russia.

It is no secret that the unanimous position of the United States and EU on the Idlib issue is important.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu informed US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini about the Sochi meeting of the presidents. The statements which followed the Sochi talks make it clear that military operations will not start in Idlib. Turkey and Russia will control the region though the US and the European Union have not given their consent yet. It is no secret that Washington and Brussels are behind some military groups in that area. In fact, one of the reasons leading the situation in Idlib to the current point is that each has its own group there. Now these states must agree to withdraw their armed forces from Idlib. Iran was out of play in these processes. There are many reasons for this.

However, one of the potential reasons is that the US Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to counter ISIS, Brett McGurk has met with commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. The meeting was held on September 11.

The sides are reported to have discussed the establishment of a new government in Iraq and other issues at the meeting. McGurk offered Soleimani to work together on establishing a new government in Iraq, leaving behind all the disagreements between the two countries. According to reports, the meeting was held on the initiative of the Special Envoy of the US President.

McGurk said that Washington does not mind it any person is appointed as the prime minister or Haider al-Abadi remains in this position. According to him, the US wants the process launched in Iraq to continue and urges Iran not to create obstacles in this issue.

Iranian General Qasem Soleimani has provided evidence to the American diplomat that they were well informed about the attack on his country's consulate in Iraq. He said that Iran has nothing to do with the attack on the US Consulate near Baghdad.

Soleimani said that Iraq is a red line for Iran and that Tehran will never abandon it.

He noted that if the US does not pursue a policy contrary to Iran's interests in Iraq, Iran is ready not to interfere with the US interests in Iraq.

According to the information, the sides agreed to continue negotiations until the establishment of a new government in Iraq.

At the same meeting,  Iran was suggested refraining from military operations in Syria. Because it does not seem reasonable to discuss Iraqi issue without Syria. Both states have similar problems.

Notably, at the end of 2017, Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency at that time, current Secretary of State Michael Pompeo sent a letter to Qasem Soleimani.

The fact that Iran does not participate in the Idlib issue can be caused by international and political pressure on Tehran and its political and economic situation.

Thus, the results of the meeting between the presidents of Turkey and Russia on the fate of Idlib will soon be known.

The inefficiency of the Tehran meeting on the Syrian issue did not take long to appear. Therefore, it won’t take the United States long to agree on Turkey and Russia control over Idlib. In any case, there is an author and purpose of the situation in Iraq and Syria.