Baku. 22 November. REPORT.AZ/ Changing of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not able to move the process forward.
Political scientist Tofig Abbasov told Report, commenting on a statement made by the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick regarding his ileaving the post to the year-end.
"If changes and replacement of the OSCE Minsk Group would solve anything, this process would have got off the ground a long time ago. Yet all these permutations did not have tangible impact on positive level", said T. Abbasov.
According to him, it has long been known that Warlick is set to leave his post. "He has already prepared the elites of member countries to the conflict", the expert added.
He expressed doubt about positive changes in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the long term, arguing the fact that the countries involved in mediation today mainly focused on reorganization of their political elites.
"Presidential elections in US, next elections are expected in France, then in Germany. Now three poles are adjusting their plans to respond to the arrival of new people, people in the upper echelon, and it's still unknown how all this will be reflected in the foreign policy priorities of Washington, Paris, Berlin, and maybe even Rome.
Therefore, as long as this process does not settle down, I think it will not happen before the end of spring 2017 and it does not make sense to expect some cardinal progress in issues such as Nagorno-Karabakh", said the expert.
Along with this, T. Abbasov did not rule out a military flare on the Karabakh front, pointing out that "Armenia is again escalating the tension, provoking the fire, violating the cease-fire".
According to him, it makes no sense to expect anything from the meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers with the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group in Hamburg, as they it will be only technical in nature.