Iran's partial withdrawal from the treaty - increasing threat of war with US - COMMENT

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced on Wednesday that his country would end its compliance with two particular provisions of the country’s nuclear deal. Rouhani did not signal the end of the deal entirely, but set Europe an ultimatum: It will have 60 days to either follow the Trump administration or resume oil trade with Iran to save the agreement by violating U.S. sanctions. The official Tehran has already sent a letter to five of the six countries except for the United States.

By the way, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed on 15 July 2015. On May 8, 2018, the United States left the Iranian nuclear program. The decision was signed by President Donald Trump. On January 9, Tehran announced that Iran would refuse to comply with its commitments if the United States withdraws from the deal. Big part of the deal is that Iran has agreed to reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98 percent. Thus, Iran could keep 300 kg out of 10 tons— enriched at no more than 3.67 percent — for the next 15 years.

In July 2015, Iran had almost 20,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, it was limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges at Natanz until 2026 - 15 years after the deal's "implementation day" in January 2016. If these and similar conditions were met, the sanctions against Iran would be lifted. In order for the document to enter into force, a valid confirmation process had to take place in the participating ыtates. However, presidential elections in the United States delayed the effective date of the agreement.

Following this, candidate for presidency Donald Tramp opposed the deal and said that the document was in favor of the Iranian authorities. The current US president stressed that he would withdraw his country from the contract if elected. This was one of his pre-election promises. Donald Trump followed his commitment a year ago.

However, while signing this document nearly four years ago, it was thought that the world's leading powers had resolved a problem, that threatened international security, through negotiations. Many countries around the world welcomed this against the background of events in the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq, and the growing activeness of the ISIS. However, the US has stated that Iran's nuclear program is not transparent.

Thus, in 2018 the US secretary of state set 12 strict demands to be included into a new nuclear treaty with Iran. Last month, US President Donald Trump designated Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organisation. Also prolonging its sanctions against oil exports. Therefore Washington-Tehran tensions have risen. The US also sent Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and bomber task force to 'warn Iran'. This was a sign that the situation would aggravate. National Security Adviser John Bolton said the administration was acting "in response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings".

The deployment of the warship was based on claims of a possible attack on US forces stationed in the region, unnamed US officials are quoted as saying.

Bolton added that they would counter any attack with "unrelenting force".

Thus, in the course of the events, it is clear that the US and Iran are on the verge of armed conflict. However, it is not likely to happen. Because even the allies of United States have not completely refused from Iran. Moreover, Iran's economic ties with world countries are not weak. The war can also be dangerous for US regional allies. The war in the first place will serve government in Iran. Tehran will link its numerous problems to the war with the US. Therefore it can lead to preservation of situation in Iran for a while.

In our view, the US will try to mobilize its allies against Iran further. The 60-day deadline for new terms to the nuclear accord by Hassan Rouhani gave Donald Tramp administration the opportunity to work in this direction. In this way Iranian government has confirmed accusations. Thus, the Tehran authorities completely avoided the adoption of the 12 tough demands from Washington. Such developments will strengthen international position of the United States against Iran.