Full normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is quite achievable, and as an intermediate step, the parties could initial the 15 already agreed articles of the peace treaty text, British analyst and journalist Onnik Krikorian told Report.
He noted that some believe that a so-called "cold peace" could be established between Baku and Yerevan, where there will be no fighting, but interaction and cooperation will remain limited, although they will gradually improve over time. However, the normalization process may take much longer.
According to Krikorian, at the moment, the primary task remains to achieve at least partial normalization.
"I first started covering this conflict in 1994 when I first visited Karabakh. That was 30 years ago now so it is certainly well past time to resolve it." he said.
The analyst recalled the words of Steve Mann, the American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, said in 2005. When asked about the timing of reaching a peace agreement, he laconically replied: "Either this year or within the next 100 years." Krikorian said these words still resonate in his memory.
According to the analyst, the normalization process remains uncertain and much depends on the current global political situation. Both sides seem to be waiting for Donald Trump to move into the White House. On the other hand, the Biden administration is very keen on signing a peace treaty by the end of this year, and Armenia is not against it. However, Trump's position and whether he considers it necessary to participate in this process is still unknown.
Krikorian emphasized the importance of the actions of Nikol Pashinyan's team to sign a peace treaty before the parliamentary elections in Armenia, which should be held no later than June 2026. Pashinyan likely hopes to put a new constitution to a referendum in 2027. If the timing of the referendum delays the peace process, then at least next year the parties could sign some kind of declaration, Krikorian suggested.
The British journalist expressed hope that even if the negotiations reach an impasse, the parties will be able to initial 15 of the 17 already agreed points of the peace treaty text.
"It would certainly signal to the populations of both sides that an agreement is within reach," the British journalist said.