Even a marginal rise in mobility could trigger a second, more fatal wave of infections in Italy, researchers have warned in a “stark” new report.
According to the modeling from Imperial College London, the lockdown measures introduced in Italy have successfully halted the spread of Covid-19 and kept the reproductive number below one, the Telegraph reported.
But this suppression may only be temporary – even a 20 percent increase in movement could prompt the onset of another wave of deaths much larger than many regions have experienced to date.
The new analysis explored the impact this could have on fatalities over the next eight weeks if behavioral patterns are similar to pre-lockdown, and no alternative interventions are imposed. The model looked at three scenarios: maintaining a lockdown and a 20 percent or 40 percent rise in mobility.
Under the second scenario, Italy could expect to see between 3,700 and 5,000 additional deaths, while a 40 percent rise in movement may result in between 10,000 and 23,000 fatalities in the next two months.
Italy has been one of the hardest-hit nations worldwide, with 29,079 fatalities, and 211,938 deaths so far confirmed. On Monday, the government began the process of easing the stringent two-month lockdown, allowing 4.4 million Italians to return to work.