British PM Rishi Sunak is being urged by senior Conservatives to go for a spring election next year, with the plan said to be “gaining traction” among campaign strategists who believe it may be their best chance to stem losses, Report informs via the Guardian.
In the aftermath of Thursday’s byelections, which saw a 21-point average swing against the Tories, some party insiders suggested May 2024 could be an “economic sweet spot” – providing the best window for “damage limitation”.
Sunak has come under pressure since the defeats in North Yorkshire and Somerset this week, despite the Tories pulling off a narrow win in Boris Johnson’s former seat in west London.
Friday’s results caused some ministers to privately push the government to soften its net zero plans and take a stronger stance on “wedge” issues that could be used to create more of a dividing line with Keir Starmer’s party.
The 19,000 and 20,000 majorities that were overturned by Labour and the Liberal Democrats have also renewed jitters among Tory MPs about the safety of their own seat.
With talk of a planned cabinet reshuffle towards the end of the summer and pressure on Sunak growing to buoy his party up at its conference in October, attention is turning among a select few in No 10 to the timing of the next election.
“Rishi will take a stronger view once we get to next January – when the economic picture is clearer and the new cabinet have had time to bed in,” said one senior Tory source. “But the case for an early election is gaining traction.”
Dan Poulter, the Conservative MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, told Times Radio on Sunday: “If we look at historical precedents, at the moment it would suggest that – unless things change and turn around – we’re probably heading for a change of government in 15, 18 months’ time.” He added there was a “slim” chance of victory, but conceded the government was in a “very difficult place”.
The idea has been advanced by those including Daniel Finkelstein, a Conservative peer and adviser to John Major in the run up to the party’s crushing defeat in 1997, as well as other figures in parliament and Conservative Central Headquarters.
“There are sound reasons for why we’d stand a better chance by going early than in November,” a minister claimed. “But if we are heading for opposition anyway, it would still help us avoid wipeout territory.”
Tory strategists point to inflation falling faster than expected – to 7.9% from 8.7% – and hopes that Sunak’s aim to halve inflation will be reached, if not by the end of the year, then in early 2024.
“There’s an economic sweet spot,” said one insider. They suggested there would probably be a period next spring where inflation comes under control but before a potential recession and the full effect of further interest rate rises has been felt.
Such a move would allow the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to store up some intended measures and announce these at the spring budget, in March 2024.
Views differ about when the election, which has to happen by January 2025, is most likely to take place. Some who want Sunak to go later point to the risk of the economy not having recovered enough by next May. They also suggest Sunak may want to make as much headway as possible in clearing the NHS backlog given the difficulties posed by strikes – making a November election more preferable.