Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives, the Institute for Study of War (ISW) said, according to Report.
Analysts say Ukrainian troops may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily.
"If fighting does halt this winter, it will be due to logistical challenges and the culmination of several campaigns on both sides.The Russian campaigns to capture all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts all culminated months ago (despite the insistence of Russian forces on launching ineffective attacks), and Russian forces are firmly on the defensive across most of the frontline," the analysts say.
Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
"The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City," ISW analysts say.