The coming winter will prove the “sternest test yet” for Ukraine’s energy grid since Russia’s invasion, with numerous power plants destroyed or damaged, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on September 19, Report informs referring to The Guardian.
Putting forward a 10-point plan for Ukraine to safeguard its war-battered energy security, the IEA also warned of problems for neighboring Moldova’s electricity supply after Ukraine stops allowing the transit of Russian gas at the end of 2024, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters … But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a news release accompanying the report.
The report said that in 2022 and 2023 “about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed or damaged, and approximately half of the large network substations were damaged by missiles and drones”.
With Ukraine having lost more than two-thirds of its electricity production capacity since the Russian invasion, the report warned of a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand.”
It urged European countries to expedite deliveries of equipment and parts to rebuild the damaged facilities and called for measures to protect them from drones.
AFP reports that in the summer, when energy needs tend to be lower, Ukraine’s capacity for power generation already fell more than two gigawatts below the peak demand of 12 gigawatts.
As demand for energy to heat homes increases in winter, the IEA predicts that the country’s peak demand could increase to nearly 19 gigawatts.
“Strains that are bearable in the summer months may become unbearable when temperatures start to fall and supplies of heat and water falter,” the report said.
The IEA said that power plants damaged by Russian attacks or occupied by Russian troops, such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, urgently needed replacing or repairing, while the physical and IT security of critical infrastructure needed strengthening.
It also recommended increasing electricity and gas import capacity from the EU, accelerating the decentralization of electricity production and greater investment in energy efficiency.
It estimated the cost of necessary repairs and upgrades at $30 billion.