China may overtake the US in terms of nominal GDP by 2034, according to the Focus Economics forecast until 2050, Report informs referring to Kommersant newspaper.
The current trajectory of GDP dynamics suggests a gradual slowdown in China's growth rates to those comparable with the US, but experts warn that there are significant risks to this forecast.
In India and Indonesia, on the contrary, higher growth rates will be maintained, which, as experts suggest, will allow these countries to reach the third and fourth places in terms of GDP in the world.
At the end of 2022, the US economy was 42% larger than the Chinese one (taking into account the nominal volume of GDP and the market exchange rate), by 2034 China's GDP may reach $41 trillion, while the US GDP will be $40 trillion.
By 2050, this gap will grow to 20% (China's GDP could be $84 trillion). China can increase productivity as well as urbanization, but growth will be significantly constrained by an aging population, as well as restrictions on technological development.