I believe the capitulation as a victory for Azerbaijan. Armenia had no choice but to agree to this agreement. Pashinyan just stated this, but on the other hand, they had a way out: not to allow such a situation from the very beginning. They could have received favorable conditions before the war. When they were actually defeated, Russia has already entered, decided to help with its peacekeeping potential, and, of course, without Azerbaijan's goodwill, this would not have happened, "Russian expert on international conflicts Yevgeny Mikhailov told Report.
"Everything that happened is unprofitable for Armenia. Of course, it is the disappointment of the government's population, which has fed the people for many years with their tales of unprecedented greatness, combat capability, that they do not need Russia, that they will cope on their own. As a result, people are now taking revenge on their state. The people will not forgive Pashinyan for the thousands of young Armenian men who died, who died for nothing, "the expert said in his interview.
He particularly noted Turkey's role in resolving the conflict. "Turkey is the main partner and reliable ally of Azerbaijan, and Turkey is also a partner of Russia in many projects. Turkish peacekeepers will primarily act on the part of Azerbaijan, and so far, we are talking about observers. Russia reached an agreement with the Turkish government, and naturally, Turkey will continue to play a significant role as a participant in the negotiation process, just like Russia."
The political scientist also assessed the situation in Armenia and noted that no one needs chaos now. "Pashinyan must complete the agreement because he signed it, and all the agreements reached will be implemented. But I would not be surprised if a coup d'etat occurs in Yerevan and ultra-nationalist forces come to power and try to terminate the agreements reached. I think Russia and Turkey will not allow Armenia to violate the agreements' points because no one needs chaos. Armenia will not be able to resist the new world realities. Even if in their hearts they want to return everything, well, let them want it, it still won't work," Mikhailov said.
"The signed agreement has a fairly short period for the return of the remaining territory. All territories should be released by December. We can talk about whether Armenia will break the agreement or not after suddenly seeing that Armenia does not comply with the date of withdrawal of troops. Naturally, Russia and Turkey will monitor this. I can't say whether Armenia will violate the agreement, but the pogroms of government buildings and political figures' beating make me uneasy. Armenia has always suffered like this, and we have seen fights in the Armenian Parliament for several years. These are not signs of democracy, but the absence of a normal state and strong government. You should accept the defeat."
The political scientist also spoke about the prospects that opened up in the region due to the conflict resolution. "The resolution of the conflict promises great prospects for the entire region. When everything is gets better, the Caspian region will develop first of all. All of this will lead to the creation of a new logistics system."