For sustainable coexistence between Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the South Caucasus, it is necessary to ensure more contacts between people, British journalist and political analyst Onnik Krikorian told Report.
“Meanwhile, Azerbaijan hardly needs an agreement so urgently while Armenia continues to anyway want direct foreign involvement from the West that Baku doesn’t,” he said.
According to Vasif Huseynov, senior advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) and Adjunct Lecturer at Khazar University in Baku, Azerbaijan, it seems more advantageous for the two South Caucasian republics to adopt a cautious approach and observe how the broader geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine, unfold, rather than hastily committing to a course of action with uncertain future outcomes.
“Thus, it appears that we are in another deadlock in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. However, unlike the 'deadlocks' of the earlier periods, the present one seems to be based on, what Azerbaijani officials call, 'de-facto peace.' With the exception of a border incident in early February, the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has remained tranquil since the one-day war in September 2023. Such sustained calm is nearly unprecedented since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, facilitated by mutual verbal recognition of each other's territorial integrity by both parties,” he added.
“As Vasif implies, geopolitics and the Ukraine war hardly make that productive. This also includes the impasse on Azerbaijan’s Zangazur Corridor versus Armenia’s Crossroads of Peace. Nonetheless, if this ‘de facto peace’ as Vasif calls it, or 'functional coexistence,' including 'negative peace,' as Ann Philips does, is to be sustainable then it will need, IMHO, greater people-people contact as well, something lacking at present and as we can see in other conflict zones (Cyprus-N. Cyprus, for example),” Krikorian added.