Container traffic along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) will grow from 18,000 TEU in 2022 to 130,000 by 2040, Report informs referring to a study by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
In 2022, around 33,000 containers were carried between Aktau and Baku ports. Based on stakeholder consultations, 18,000 TEUs of these volumes were assumed to have been carried along the CTCN.
Some 18,000 TEU passed through South Kazakhstan (through this corridor), and 15,000 TEU through North Kazakhstan.
According to forecasts, in 2025 container traffic is expected at the level of 80,000 TEU, in 2030 - 110,000 TEU, in 2035 - 125,000 TEU.
"For the private sector, the choice of corridor for any shipment is primarily driven by three factors: travel time, predictability and cost from the origin to the destination. These are the key aspects that influence the decision of companies seeking to operate on a given route," reads the report.
To estimate container volumes on the CTCN, demand and transport models were developed, taking into account the real delivery times and costs for each route, as well as origins, destinations, modes and corridors. A choice model was then developed for the alternative options, with variables including transit time and transit time reliability, cost per TEU, distance to Europe origin/destination and number of border crossings.
"If all of the action items and projects proposed in this study are implemented, the CTCN has the potential to reach a free-flowing transit time of 13 days between the EU and Asian hubs. In this case, the maximum container volumes on the CTCN could reach to 865,000 TEUs.
In addition, higher volumes on the Northern and Southern Trans-Caspian Corridors would be observed, of 270,000 TEUs and 254,000 TEUs, respectively, as a result of spill-over effects. This amounts to a total of 1.4 million containers transiting through Central Asia and connecting to Europe by 2040, should all the improvements put forward in this study be made to enhance the operational efficiency of this route," reads the report.
In the baseline scenario, potential loaded containers used for Central Asian regional trade could reach 470,000 TEUs by 2040.
"This would put significant pressure on the infrastructure, amid 865,000 TEUs of expected transit traffic on the CTCN and the expected growth in non-containerised trade. Hence, large-scale capacity and operational improvements are needed to accommodate expected traffic growth," the study noted.
According to forecasts, in 2025 the volume of regional trade is expected at 282,000 TEU, along the Middle Corridor - 293,000 TEU, in 2030 - 334,000 TEU and 507,000 TEU, in 2035 - 396,000 TEU and 731,000 TEU respectively. Whereas in 2022, container traffic in Central Asia amounted to 266,000 TEU, and 18,000 TEU were transported along the Trans-Caspian corridor.
The Northern Corridor between Asia and Europe runs from China through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus before entering the EU via Poland. Trains also travel through Mongolia or directly through Russia on the Trans-Siberian railway. This route is about 10,000 kilometres (km) long and the transit time is reported to be 14 days, on average.
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connects Asia and Europe through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea. Goods enter the Caucasus through the port of Baku, and continue on to Georgia, from where there are two alternative routes before reaching the EU via Bulgaria or Romania: a land route via Türkiye, or a sea route via the Black Sea. Although shorter than the Northern Corridor (7,000 km), it currently includes unpredictable timelines that can range from 14 to 45 days, but could take up to 60 days depending on the circumstances, EBRD analysts say.
The Southern Corridor traverses the Kyrgyz Republic or Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Türkiye before entering Europe via Bulgaria or Greece. Another potential route along the Southern Corridor crosses Afghanistan and Central Asia and onwards to the EU via the Caucasus, but this alternative has not been assessed for the purposes of this study for geopolitical reasons. This is a land-based corridor and largely preferred by road carriers, as it avoids the Caspian Sea crossing and the problems associated with it, including port inefficiencies and limited and unpredictable ferry times. Transit times are reported to be around 14-20 days for non-EU destinations, but can take 60 days or more.