The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia with international mediation is losing relevance, UK journalist Onnik Krikorian told Report.
“I think it can be said that France’s involvement in the European Council’s efforts has disrupted and at times discredited the platform while the coming US elections risk leaving talks subject to some presidential candidates exploiting the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict for their own personal domestic gain,” he noted.
“There has been some ambiguity over the European Council Charles Michel-facilitated meetings, however, especially with the Granada statement made last year by Michel, Macron, Scholz, and Pashinyan raising concerns given that it made demands of both Azerbaijan and Turkiye despite the absence of both Aliyev and Erdogan. It was following that statement that Azerbaijan openly called for bilateral talks and specifically in “neutral countries” or on the border.”
“I’m not sure Baku is completely against either platform, and it definitely has not ruled them out, but more that it does not see either as a neutral mediator or facilitator. This demand for bilateral talks is perhaps more intended to warn the US and EU that it will not take part in any platform where what should be neutral mediators or facilitators are instead perceived as increasingly partisan and openly supporting Armenia while making demands of Azerbaijan,” he said.
“Of more significance was the joint statement on the exchange of detainees and agreement and cooperation on COP29 which was unexpected, unprecedented, and reportedly decided bilaterally. Some Armenian analysts claim that this was a direct result of US pressure on Azerbaijan but that seems wishful thinking and there are no statements to support this claim. It should also be noted that those analysts are against bilateral talks and some even against a peace agreement.”
“Now we wait to see if the latest offer from the Azerbaijani foreign minister to meet on the border with his Armenian counterpart is accepted or not or if it will again take place in the US. This will be the real sign of whether talks are now definitely shifting to a fully bilateral format. A lot will depend on whether the US agrees to Azerbaijan’s request for it to waive Section 907 and also whether it is more cautious and restrained in its words,” he added.
“That said, some international observers have long claimed that bilateral talks are the only way forwards though noticeably only when Russia is involved as they hope to exclude it from any process.
Anyway, if talks are increasingly held on the border, I think we can say that the internationally mediated or facilitated processes are losing relevance,” the journalist noted.