Profit tax payments by shareholders of the Shah Deniz gas field development project are projected to total AZN 1.42 billion ($835.3 million) in 2027.
According to Report, the forecast is included in the 2027 state budget package.
This is 11.3% lower than the forecast for 2026 and 37.2% below the actual figure for 2025.
Compared with the 2026 forecast, profit tax revenues will decline by AZN 180 million ($105.9 million). The main reasons are a projected decrease in condensate production at the field by 500,000 barrels, or 1.7%, and natural gas output by 0.2 billion cubic metres, or 0.7%.
In addition, the European gas hub price used in the calculations is 6.8%, or $30, below the level projected for the current year.
Compared with the actual figure for 2025, profit tax payments by the project shareholders will decrease by AZN 840.3 million ($494.3 million). This is due to a projected decline in condensate production by 3.3 million barrels, or 10.4%, and natural gas output by 0.6 billion cubic metres, or 2.2%, in 2027 compared with 2025.
Furthermore, the projected gas price for 2027 is 15.3%, or $73.8, lower than the 2025 level.
In 2026, gas production at the Shah Deniz field is forecast to reach 26.9 billion cubic metres, while condensate output is expected to total 30.3 million barrels.
According to BP-Azerbaijan, Shah Deniz produced 20 billion cubic metres of gas in January-September 2026, down 4.8% year-on-year, while condensate production amounted to 21 million barrels, a decrease of 12.5%.
The agreement on the exploration and development of the Shah Deniz field and production sharing was signed on June 4, 1996, and ratified on October 17 of the same year. The field, located 70 kilometres southeast of Baku, was discovered in 1999.
In December 2013, the term of the production sharing agreement was extended from 2036 to 2046.
The project participants hold the following stakes: BP (operator) – 29.99%; Lukoil – 19.99%; TPAO – 19%; NICO – 10%; Southern Gas Corridor CJSC – 16.02%; and MVM – 5%.