On July 22, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB+/B' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Azerbaijan. The outlook is stable, Report informs, citing the agency.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that favorable hydrocarbon prices and rising gas exports will support Azerbaijan's fiscal and balance-of-payments positions over 2022-2023.
"It is also based on the assumption that there is no return to open military confrontation with Armenia, while the negative repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war remain limited for Azerbaijan," S&P analysts say.
Conversely, S&P could consider an upgrade if higher external surpluses are sustained for longer than expected, resulting in sizable external asset accumulation.
"Ratings upside could also build if the government implements reforms addressing some of Azerbaijan's structural impediments, including constraints to monetary policy effectiveness stemming from elevated resident deposit dollarization and a still-weak domestic banking system," S&P notes.
The sovereigns are rated in the 'BB' category, and the agency consider Azerbaijan's fiscal and external stock positions among the strongest.
"The government has accumulated substantial liquid assets, mainly within sovereign wealth fund State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ). We forecast that the government will have access to liquid assets of close to 60% of GDP through 2025 and that general government debt will remain at about 20% of GDP. In addition to strong stock positions, currently favorable oil prices also support Azerbaijan's fiscal and balance-of-payments performance," S&P writes.