Dutch banking group ING has revised its inflation outlook for Azerbaijan, forecasting annual inflation of 5.8% in 2026, 5.6% in 2027, and 5.3% in 2028.
According to Report, the updated projections lower the bank's 2026 forecast by 0.3 percentage points compared with its previous estimate, while the 2027 forecast has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The 2028 projection has been included for the first time.
Official data from Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee show that average annual inflation stood at 5.6% in 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024. Inflation averaged 5.6% in the first five months of 2026.
ING analysts expect average annual inflation to reach 5.7% in the second quarter of 2026, 5.8% in the third quarter, and 5.6% in the fourth quarter.
The bank's projections remain above those of Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy, which forecasts average annual inflation of 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, meanwhile, expects annual inflation to be around 5.9% this year.
International institutions generally have more moderate outlooks. The United Nations forecasts inflation at 3.1% in 2026, while the World Bank projects 2.3% and the Asian Development Bank expects 3.5%.
Among credit rating agencies, Moody's forecasts average annual inflation of 3.0% this year, Fitch Ratings projects 4.6%, and Fitch Solutions expects inflation to reach 5.5% in 2026 before easing to 4.8% in 2027.